Trumponomics

Photo by http://elvertbarnes.com/protestphotography

President-elect Donald Trump has promised a massive investment[1] in the renovation of public infrastructure – bridges, highways[2], frontier walls, etc. – in the USA (originally, a Democrat proposal). He is right that many bridges and other structures badly need repairing[3]. However, as an indirect solution to US economic problems, it is a wrongheaded[4] idea.

The USA – in contrast to most of the developed world[5] – does not have an employment problem in absolute terms. US unemployment currently stands at[6] around 5%, which is pretty[7] close to full employment. The problem is not the quantity of jobs available but the quality. The job market has polarized – as it has all over the developed world⁵ – between a lot of McJobs[8] and a few very highly paid positions. Those who considered themselves middle-class (in terms of salary) have seen their relative social status and their absolute economic position eroded more or less continuously for decades.

An infrastructure building program is the perfect solution to high unemployment. Indeed[9], it saved the USA in the 1930s and 1940s. But construction jobs are not what Trump’s supporters[10] want. In fact, the construction boom would be a draw[11] for immigrants under normal circumstances, except that Trump has vowed[12] to expel millions of them. Unless unemployment rises[13] significantly, it will be very hard[14] to find the workers needed for Trump’s building boom.

The fact is that skilled[15] manufacturing jobs are not coming back and neither are middle-class clerical[16] jobs. Don’t expect to get a job in an office unless you are willing to[17] pay extra to be attended by[18] a human at the travel agency. If cheaper manufactured goods[19] from abroad[20] are banned[21] so that they have to be made in the USA, then they will be made by machines, not humans. The whole dynamic of late capitalisms is toward the concentration of wealth[22] in the hands of the few; victimizing immigrants or putting up tariff barriers[23] will only make matters worse[24].

Mr Trump understands speculative construction and has gambled[25] very successfully – and spectacularly unsuccessfully – on such building projects in the past. However, his wealth over the past two decades has been based primarily on brand management[26]; the name ‘Trump’ was linked to[27] conspicuous consumption[28] and the high life[29] so that it could be used to make ordinary[30] ties[31], steaks, whiskey and a string of[32] other products seem like luxury items. Could this be a model for future US prosperity?

Perhaps. An important aspect of the boom of the early years of the Blair Government in the UK was the ‘Cool Britannia’ rebranding[33]; selling the UK as a modern, open, cosmopolitan, sexy, fashionable place. Incidentally[34], Brexit has shown how uncool Britannia really is! Transferring Trump’s branding[35] success within[36] the USA to the world is a tall order[37]. The election campaign has created an international image of Mr Trump as a sexist, racist, loud-mouthed oaf[38] – ‘a punk’[39] to use Robert de Niro’s description. No doubt in private Mr Trump isn’t quite so obnoxious[40] but rebranding at this point will be almost impossible. Blair had Blur, Oasis and a period of national optimism and openness on his side[41] (until he got involved in[42] somebody else’s war); Trump has a nation divided and a world that is both hostile and fearful. His infrastructure proposals[43] won’t solve the malaise[44] but they will increase the astronomical national debt. His other big economic proposal is to reduce taxes on companies and the very rich. This will lead to[45] more polarization and more resentment.

Most people understand “Make America Great Again” as referring to the 1950s. Well, at that time the top US marginal tax rate was 90%. This meant that the Administration had the resources[46] to promote the biggest consumer boom in world history. Trumponomics will not make America great again. When Donald fails[47] his resentful followers, who will they turn to[48] then?

[1] investment – expenditure on useful things

[2] highways – intercity roads

[3] need repairing – should be fixed, need to be mended

[4] wrongheaded – misguided, showing bad judgement

[5] the developed world – the First World, rich countries

[6] to stand at (stand-stood-stood) – be

[7] pretty – (in this case) reasonably

[8] McJob – low–paid job with few prospects

[9] indeed – (emphatic) in fact

[10] supporter – follower

[11] draw – (in this case) magnet, attraction

[12] to vow – promise

[13] to rise (rise-rose-risen) – increase, go up, augment

[14] hard – difficult

[15] skilled – specialist

[16] clerical – administrative

[17] to be willing to – be prepared to, be ready to

[18] to be attended by – interact with

[19] goods – products

[20] abroad – overseas, foreign countries

[21] to ban – prohibit

[22] wealth – riches, capital

[23] tariff barrier – fiscal impediment to importation

[24] to make matters worse – cause the situation to deteriorate

[25] to gamble – take risks, speculate

[26] brand management – the supervision and promotion of a specific name in business

[27] to link A to B – associate A with B

[28] conspicuous consumption – buying luxury products to increase one’s prestige

[29] the high life – the extravagant life of the rich elite

[30] ordinary – normal, standard

[31] (neck)tie – a piece of textile worn around one’s neck (typically by a businessman)

[32] a string of – a series of

[33] rebranding – changing the public image of a corporation (or in this case, of a country)

[34] incidentally – by the way, en passant

[35] branding – brand management²⁶

[36] within – inside

[37] to be a tall order – be a formidable task, be sth. that will be very difficult to do

[38] oaf – ‘Neanderthal’, ‘gorilla’

[39] punk – (US English) worthless person, criminal

[40] obnoxious – extremely unpleasant

[41] on his side – in his favour

[42] to get involved in – start to participate in

[43] proposal – plan, program

[44] malaise – unhappiness, anxiety

[45] to lead to (lead-led-led) – result in

[46] resources – money, financing

[47] to fail – be unsuccessful, not triumph

[48] to turn to – follow, support

 

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